Bangladesh is undergoing substantial economic and social change, and this will intensify in the coming decades. Fundamental forces are in play – the end of the demographic transition, rapid industrialization and structural change, and substantial rural-urban migration. These processes will bring with them a host of developmental pressures. Chief among these are a suite of potential inequities, as the country moves to MIC status, the tendency towards differentiation in incomes and living conditions will continue. This is a by-product of the growth process, Bangladesh’s economic model and its basic geography. It is vital these are addressed if poverty reduction is to be maintained, and a host of future problems associated with social exclusion are to be avoided.
Environmental pressures, exacerbated by climate change, will remain significant and could easily worsen, if remedial actions, at the local and global level are not taken. While the population will stabilization at around 200 million, growing wealth and mass population movements will place further enormous strains on ecosystems and the living environment.
Better social service provision, especially in health and education, is also key to Bangladesh’s continuing ability to meet core welfare objectives. While the country has done well in meeting its headline MDG obligations, there remain serious weaknesses on the quality and durability of some outcomes. Major delivery questions must be addressed, through the improvement of public sector management and its governance. Given the tendencies to greater and more complex inequalities, there is a need to look beyond aggregate data - to service access and take-up of disadvantaged groups, and variations in the geographical foot-print of performance.
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